wiegveld schreef op 4 juli 2025 10:13:
Uit een obscuur clubje waar investeerders ideeen pitchen over een bedrijf. HAL zit er ook bij.
Weird Shit Investing 2025
What is the investment case about?
HAL has made mistakes investing the EUR 5bn+ windfall from the sale
of optical care, leaving stated net asset value (NAV) below the end 2015
level. This is blinding investors to a new phase of growth, refocus and the
spectacular privatisation of Boskalis. Secretive company nature, requirement
to deconsolidate accounts and interrogate statutory filings against a mere
15% free float deters investigation. Carrying values are conservative, and HAL
disclosure now more shareholder-friendly. Shares trade at ~44% discount to
our NAV estimate which could close sharply if more moves such as the Vopak
spin of its Indian joint venture took place.
Why is this interesting and weird?
Investors have a chance to invest directly alongside the wealth vehicle of one
of the Netherlands' richest – if conservative – families across a portfolio of
listed securities, and operating businesses. The quoted entity is a Bermuda
trust owning a Dutch (Rotterdam) based company and has bearer securities.
They do no results presentations or conference calls, sell-side research is very
thin but HAL have an extraordinary track record of building businesses to
advantage. There is a strong focus on complex marine-related activities, where
there are few publicly listed players in what is a growth industry.
What is the valuation and return profile?
HAL shares at EUR 119 trade at a 44% discount to our estimated NAV of EUR
211/share of which EUR 93 is attributable to Boskalis, which has direct listed
peers. A further EUR 53 is comprised of listed companies mainly in the marine
engineering, storage, and energy servicing industries. We believe the core
Dutch operating businesses which have a bias to building supplies to be worth
EUR 36 a share. There are high-return undervalued niches in two healthcare
areas and EUR 18/share of net cash outside of Boskalis. We believe the
discount should close as HAL demonstrates operating profit growth, potentially
sharply on monetisations.
Anything else one should know?
Investing in HAL requires extreme patience but we view the downside as very
limited, the mix of investments and businesses as relatively defensive. This is
not for the racy... I am one of the few people who have done the deep digging
required to track the history – which is really important – and ferret out Dutch
regulatory filings. We have had great success in other similar "deep-discount"
companies who don't interact with the investment community such as E-L
Financial in Canada and one of last year's Weird Shit Investing picks, Viel et Cie.