Fed live: één kwartje, 'disinflation' en SVB, hoe kon dat?

Fed verhoogt rente met één kwartje naar 4,75%-5%, herhaalt 'disinflation on horizon' en bankencrisis is onder controle - for now.

De Fed verhoogt de rente met één kwartje naar 4,75-5,00%, zoals de consensus verwachtte. Hieronder ziet u eerst de belangrijkste alinea's uit het misschien iets duivische persbericht en de markten reageerden als volgt:

• Aandelen dikken iets aan
• EUR/USD stijgt halve cent
• Amerikaanse tweejaarsrente zakt tien (!0) basispunten, maar de tienjaars doet vlak!

Tijdens de eerste twintig minuten van de persconferentie zetten de markten deze bewegingen gestaag door, maar daarna vlakten ze af. 

De  belangrijkste conclusies uit de persconferentie van voorzitter Jerome Powell:

• In de afgelopen twee weken was er een bankrun zonder weerga bij vooral Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). De situatie is nu onder controle en dit is een geïsoleerd geval van één bank die uit bocht vloog. Er wordt uitgezocht hoe en wat, en alle tegoeden zijn gegarandeerd
• De economie draait halfbakken, inflatie is nog veel te hoog (maar disinflation is just around the corner) en de arbeidsmarkt is nog veel te sterk (hoewel looninflatie afneemt)
• Het is onduidelijk hoeveel renteverhogingen er nog komen dit jaar, maar reken niet op verlagingen. Oh, de Fed heeft naar aanleiding van de acute bankencrisis even overwogen de rente niet te verhogen. 

Wellicht was dit de trigger die de markten van hun grootste duivenveren ontdeed:

Jerome Powell: If we need to raise rates higher than expected, we will https://t.co/D23lTinnyM pic.twitter.com/DW6Z4Ca0tp

— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) March 22, 2023

Uit de persco, de quotes die ertoe doen. Uit de algemene speech van de voorzitter:

• 22 Mar - 19:31:17  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: ALL DEPOSITORS' SAVINGS ARE SAFE
• 22 Mar - 19:31:37  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: OUR LENDING PROGRAMS ARE EFFECTIVELY MEETING BANKS NEEDS
• 22 Mar - 19:31:44  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: ALSO SHOWS AMPLE LIQUIDITY AVAILABLE
• 22 Mar - 19:32:12  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: INFLATION REMAINS TOO HIGH
• 22 Mar - 19:32:18  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: LABOR MARKET STILL TOO TIGHT
• 22 Mar - 19:34:07  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: WAGE GROWTH HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF EASING
• 22 Mar - 19:35:44  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: LONGER-TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS REMAIN WELL ANCHORED
• 22 Mar - 19:36:40  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: WE ARE CONTINUING PROCESS OF SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING OUR BALANCE SHEET
• 22 Mar - 19:36:43  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: SINCE LAST MEETING ECONOMIC DATA HAS COME IN STRONGER THAN EXPECTED
• 22 Mar - 19:36:59  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: BUT WE THINK RECENT BANKING EVENTS WILL RESULT IN TIGHTER CREDIT CONDITION
• 22 Mar - 19:38:44  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: REDUCING INFLATION IS LIKELY TO REQUIRE PERIOD OF BELOW TREND GROWTH
• 22 Mar - 19:41:15  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: LAST TWO WEEKS WILL CAUSE A WEIGH ON DEMAND  AND INFLATION

Nu komt het:

• 22 Mar - 19:44:35  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: AT MEETING I HEARD A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF PEOPLE ANTICIPATING TIGHTENING CREDIT CONDITIONS
• 22 Mar - 19:44:47  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: THIS WAS INCLUDED IN THEIR PROJECTIONS
• 22 Mar - 19:44:55  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: THEREFORE THEY WERE INCLUDING THAT FORECEAST FOR TIGHTER CREDIT CONDITIONS IN THEIR FORECASTS
• 22 Mar - 19:45:21  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: MOST OF INTERMEETING PERIOD POINTED TO HIGHER RATES
• 22 Mar - 19:45:33  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: BUT POSSIBILITY OF CREDIT CONDITIONS TIGHTENING DUE TO BANKING STRESSES OFFSET THAT

Hier nog meer, disinflation is alive? 

• 22 Mar - 19:48:13  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: YES, DISINFLATION IS ABSOLUTELY OCCURING
• 22 Mar - 19:48:24  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: THE STORY ON DISINFLATION IS INTACT
• 22 Mar - 19:48:28  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: GOODS INFLATION IS COMING DOWN EVEN IF MORE SLOWLY THAN WE WOULD LIKE
• 22 Mar - 19:48:48  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: WE STILL DON'T HAVE SIGN OF PROGRESS ON SERVICES EX HOUSING SECTOR
• 22 Mar - 19:49:07  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: WE DON'T YET SEE PROGRESS ON CORE SERVICES INFLATION EXCLUDING HOUSING
• 22 Mar - 19:49:10  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: INFLATION DATA, HOWEVER, DID POINT TO STRONGER INFLATION
• 22 Mar - 19:54:00  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: PARTICIPANTS DON'T SEE RATE CUTS THIS YEAR
• 22 Mar - 19:55:28  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: AT END OF DAY WE WILL DO ENOUGH TO BRING INFLATION DOWN TO 2%

Over SVB: een geïsoleerd geval, maar hoe kon deze bank, die onder toezicht stond, zo uit de bocht vliegen? Want zoveel is al duidelijk, de bank nam veel te veel risico. 

• 22 Mar - 19:47:22  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: I REALIZED RIGHT AWAY THERE WAS A NEED FOR A BANKING REVIEW
• 22 Mar - 19:51:10  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: FED SUPERVISORS SAW THESE RISKS AND INTERVENED
• 22 Mar - 19:51:43  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: FOR OUR PART, WE ARE DOING A REVIEW AND MY ONLY INTEREST IS WE IDENTIFY WHAT WENT WRONG
• 22 Mar - 19:52:50  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: SVB WAS AN OUTLIER
• 22 Mar - 19:52:20  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: WE DO NEED TO STRENGTHEN SUPERVISION AND REGULATION
• 22 Mar - 19:53:06  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: REGULATORS WERE ON THIS ISSUE, BUT SVB STILL FAILED
• 22 Mar - 20:04:03  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: SPEED OF THE RUN ON SVB SUGGESTS NEED FOR POSSIBLE REGULATORY, SUPERVISORY CHANGES

Toch nog!

• 22 Mar - 20:05:59  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: TAKEOVER OF CREDIT SUISSE SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN A POSITIVE OUTCOME
• 22 Mar - 20:06:08  [RTRS] - FED'S POWELL: THAT TAKEOVER HAS GONE WELL SO FAR